Maybe AI actually isn’t taking everyone’s jobs

A new report from Vanguard says that the ~100 occupations most exposed to AI automation are actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in terms of job growth and real wage increases.

If true, this suggests that current AI systems are generally enhancing worker productivity and shifting workers’ tasks toward higher-value activities.

They say that for 80% of jobs, AI will act as a force multiplier (not a replacement), handling repetitive tasks and freeing up roughly 43% of the average worker’s time for higher-value activities.

Vanguard projects this shift could boost U.S. labor productivity by 20% by 2035, potentially driving GDP growth to levels we haven’t seen since the 1990s.

One nuance the data highlights is that entry-level roles (often built on the repetitive tasks AI excels at) are the most vulnerable. The career ladder is losing its bottom rungs, meaning mentorship and upskilling are about to become critical corporate KPIs, not just “nice-to-haves.”

Vanguard’s data aligns with what we’re seeing across the broader economic landscape, where we’re heading toward a mass restructuring of work.